Worthless and Weak

Hmmm, always good to double check figures.

So, today during class or something, I figgered that I made a mistake in the math department, and that the red sox should win about 6 or 7 more games than I had them winning. Which means about 105 wins. Which seems a little more opitimistic that what I first had.

But take these predictions with a grain of salt, cause I don't really know what the hell I'm doing anyway.

My 2005 Red Sox Preview. Go Sox!!!

Catcher:

2004: Jason Varitek
2005: Cap Varitek

Same catcher, but now he's got a C on his Jersey. And several million more in his bank account.
The Sox overpaid for him, but he was the best catcher on the market, and the "heart and soul" of the Boston Red Sox.
And he can take A-Rod.

Prediction: 521 Plate Appearances, .832 OPS -8 runs.

First Base:

2004: Kevin Millar
2005: Kevin Millar

Millar had a great first half of 2003, followed by a poor full season (2nd half of '03, 1st half of '04), followed by a great final half season.
He's got poor defense, above-average offense.

Predicion: 566 Plate Appearances, .850 OPS -5 runs.

Second Base:

2004: Mark Bellhorn
2005: Mark Bellhorn

The most underrated player on the sox by a large margin. His on base percentage is great.
He'll never hit for a high average because he strikes out soo much, but if ever got that under control he'd practically be Wade Boggs.

Prediction: 583 Plate Appearances, .773 OPS -9 Runs

Shortstop:

2004: Pokey Reese/Nomar Garciaparra/Orlando Cabrera
2005: Edgar Renteria

Renteria is the only player to have a series winning hit in one world series (1997), and make the last out of another(2004)
Like Cabrera, he's a gold-glove shortstop, and I think that he's gonna have as good of a glove as Cabrera, and better than the shortstop by committee of 2004.

Prediction: 628 Plate Appearances, .814 OPS +13 Runs

Third Base:

2004: Bill Mueller
2005: Bill Mueller

This will probably be Mueller's last season with the sox, and he's probably going to do better than he did in 2004, but he won't win the batting title or anything.

Prediction: 490 Plate Appearances, .835 OPS +6 Runs

Left Field:

2004: Manny Ramirez
2005: Manny Ramirez

Best player on the team. Hopefully, he'll keep the Sox's streak of at least one MVP winner per decade alive.

Prediction: 627 Plate Appearances, 1.033 OPS -4 Runs

Center Field:

2004: Johnny Damon
2005: Johnny Damon

Coming off of a career year, and in the last year of his contract.

Prediction: 691 Plate Appearances, .807 OPS -8 Runs

Right Field:

2004: Gabe Kapler
2005: Trot Nixon

If Nixon is healthy, he is a huge upgrade over Gabe Kapler. He had a higher OPS in 2003 than David Ortiz.

Prediction: 389 Plate Appearances, .897 OPS +31 Runs

Designated Hitter:

2004: David Ortiz
2005: David Ortiz

I had a nightmare last night that the sox traded Ortiz for Henri Stanley and Ugeth Urbina. Hopefully, that won't come true.

You might think I'm unkind to him in my predictions, and believe me, Ortiz certainly has made the leap to a superstar. But my prediction system is almost purely scientific.

Prediction: 559 Plate Appearances, .940 OPS -20 Runs

4th Outfielder:

2004: Trot Nixon
2005: Jay Payton

Payton is great defensively, and has one of the best defensive outfielders in MLB.
And, because he's right-handed, he makes a perfect platoon partner for Nixon (although he's only played 12 inning in right field in his MLB career).

Prediction: 200 Plate Appearances .785 OPS +7 Runs

Backup Catcher:

2004: Doug Mirabelli
2005: Doug Mirabelli

He actually had a higher OPS than Varitek did last year.
He was probably also the 3rd or 4th best free agent catcher this offseason. He won't do as good as last year, but he'll be a very good backup.

Prediction: 196 Plate Appearances, .805 OPS -1 Run

5th Outfielder:

2004: Dave Roberts
2005: Adam Stern

Stern is the sox's rule V draft pick, for those of you who've never heard of him before.
And I know very little about him, except that he's most likely not going to be as good as Roberts was.

Utility Infielder:

2004: Pokey Reese
2005: Ramon Vazquez

Prediction: 130 Plate Appearances, .691 OPS (+/- Runs below)

Ramon is a triple threat, he can't hit, can't field, can't run. So Theo, its not too late to sign Pokey! (I think)

Good Defensive First baseman:

2004: David McCarty/Doug Mientkiewicz
2005: Doug Mientkiewicz

Minky is better offensively and defensively than McCarty, alhough the real question is how much Mientkiewicz is going to play.

Prediction: 130 Plate Appearances, .758 OPS (+/- Runs below)

Infielder:

2004: Kevin Youkilis
2005: Kevin Youkilis

A decent bat, a very good batting eye, and a decent glove.
Its conceivable that he could be traded, or optioned to triple A.

Prediction: 209 Plate Appearances, .780 OPS -5 Runs

Rest of team:

the mid-season callups, the trades we'll make, pitchers in interleague play, etc etc. Includes all players who's +/- Runs weren't listed

2004: 872 Plate Appearances, .522 OPS
Prediction: 788 Plate Appearances, .654 OPS +6 Runs

Pitching

Ace:

2004: Curt Schilling
2005: Curt Schilling

Probably the biggest question facing the Sox is the status of its injured pitchers. Schilling will probably start the year on the DL, which is quite unfortunate.

Prediction: 198 IP, 3.16 ERA -4 Runs

Second Starter:

2004: Pedro Martinez
2005: Matt Clement

Worthless and Weak wishes Pedro Martinez the best, as he signed with the morally correct New York Team. But we replaced the best free agent pitcher with the second best.
Clement isn't going to be great, but he'll be good enough.

Prediction: 194 IP, 4.15 ERA -9 Runs

Third Starter:

2004: Bronson Arroyo
2005: Bronson Arroyo

I've only really got one season to base my predictions on, so I'm predicting he will exactly duplicate his performance last year.

Prediction 178.2 IP, 4.03 ERA Even

Fourth Starter:

2004: Tim Wakefield
2005: Tim Wakefield

The man who's been with the Sox the longest continues for another year. Three years ago, he had a 2.81 ERA. Last year, a 4.87. Its conceivable that he could do either this year.

Prediction: 186.2 IP, 4.10 ERA + 16 Runs

Fifth Starter:

2004: Derek Lowe
2005: David Wells

So the Sox are casting their lot with a 42 year old overweight pitcher. He'll probably either not regress much or he'll just collapse.

Prediction: 204 IP, 4.31 ERA +25 Runs

Closer:

2004: Keith Foulke
2005: Keith Foulke

Perhaps the second best closer in the AL. Of course, he didn't blow any saves in the postseason, so he might be the best.

Prediction: 83 IP, 2.33 ERA -1 Run

Fragile relief ace:

2004: Scott Williamson
2005: Matt Mantei

Depending on how healthy Mantei stays, he could be excellent.

Prediction: 29.1 IP, 3.54 ERA - 7 Runs

Long Man:

2004: Mike Timlin
2005: Wade Miller

These two really don't fit, as Wade Miller will probably either be on the DL or in the rotation. But, I really wanted to compare everyone, so here's what I have:

Prediction: 110 IP, 3.89 ERA + 7 Runs

LOOGY:

2004: Alan Embree
2005: Alan Embree

Embree isn't a LOOGY per say, as he often stays in for more than one batter. The kind of pitcher you want in your bullpen.

Prediction: 55.2 IP, 368 ERA + 3 Runs

Generic relief pitcher:

2004: Ramerio Mendoza
2005: Mike Timlin

Timlin has more rings than anyone else on the team. He's also a very reliable relief pitcher (much like Embree), he won't generally blow away people, but he's the kind of guy you want in your bullpen.

Prediction: 84 IP, 3.12 ERA + 15 Runs

Staff:

2004: B Kim, Leskanic, Dinardo, Adams, Myers, etc
2005: Kim, Dinardo, Halama, etc.

Prediction 212 IP, 5.34 ERA.

Overall: +48 Runs.

Last Years record was 98-64. Adjust that halfway to pythagorean (96-66), which gives us 97-65. Take two wins for generally being old, one for my optimism, and we get 94-68. Figure 10 runs per win (as described by Bill James), and we've got plus 5 wins. Which gives the sox 99-63 for 2005.

As soon as the Yankees get a team together, maybe I'll preview them as well.