Worthless and Weak

Does Bert Byleven belong in the hall of fame? My initial thought was that he didn't belong in the hall. With only 287 wins, he misses the magic 300 mark. Which is ok, if you have a lot of other things going for you, such as lots of 20 win seasons. Byleven has one. Bacically, my thought was that his supporters believe that he has a "hall of fame career." My initial thought was that he had a career which might have been better than many hall of famers, that alone doens't make him a hall of famer.

For instance, Sandy Koufax won 165 games. Which will not get you into the hall. However, he packed his greatness into those 165 wins, winning 25 games three seasons, leading the league in ERA for 5 straight years, and leading the majority of significant pitching statistics from 1962 to 1966. So, to say that anyone who has more wins than Sandy Koufax is automatically the better pitcher would be kinda silly.

So, to figure out if Byleven had a "hall of fame" career, or enough extra things to put him into the hall, I decided to compare him to 7 Hall of Famers with a similar number of wins. Those hall of famers are Red Ruffing, with 273 wins, Fergie Jenkins, with 284, Robin Roberts, with 286, Early Winn, with 300, Phil Niekro, with 318, and Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton, with 324 each. I didn't include Mickey Welch and Ol' Hoss Radbourn, because I think that the game (and especially pitching) had changed so much since the 1880's that it would be kind of silly to compare them. I didn't include Lefty Grove and Tom Seaver, because, well, they're lefty Grove and Tom Seaver. I didn't include Clemens or Maddux both because they are not in yet, and because I put those two closer to Seaver and Grove in quality than to Ryan, Niekro, et al. Looking back, I'm not really sure why I didn't include Gaylord Perry.

In looking at career, I looked at wins, ERA compared to the league average (ERA+), innings pitched, runs saved versus a pitcher 80% of average (ie, ip * ERA+ -.8), and Bill James' Win Shares.

In the individual season basis, I looked at three things. First, big win seasons, both the number of 20 win seasons and the number of 17 win seasons. Second, ERA, which I measured by the number of seasons leading the league in ERA or ERA+, and the number of seasons in the top 5 in ERA or ERA+. (ERA+ is adjusted for the ballpark, so that you can lead the league in ERA and not ERA+. Also, I only give them credit for leading in one stat, so if you're leading say 1982 NL in either ERA or ERA+ you get a point, but not two if you lead both). Third, the ability to strike people out, measured by seasons leading the league in strikeouts, top 5 in strikeouts, leading the league in strikeouts per inning pitched, and top 5 in strikeouts per inning pitched.

I weighed the rankings by first assinging a rank to each statistic, 1 through 8, then adding up all the ranks in a particular category. For instance, Nolan Ryan was first in years leading the league in strikouts, top 5 in strikeouts, years leading the league in strikeouts per inning pitched, and top five in strikeouts per inning pitched. Thus, his score is 4, which (not suprisingly) is first in that category. Then, I add that rank to his rank for the ERA section and his big win section, and I get a final score, which I compare to everyone else, get a new rank, (in Ryans case, 3rd), which I add to the career rank, and get a final score, and then I can get a final order of who is best.

Now, this is an interesting way to look at things, but there are huge wholes in it. For instance, if, instead of looking at Ryan, I looked at Gaylord Perry, then the whole results could be different. Also, it doesn't measure the margin of difference. In looking at the seasons leading the league in strikeouts, Early Winn and Robin Roberts were tied for second, with 2 apiece. Nolan Ryan was first, with 11. So what it does is say that the advantage of 2 over 1 is actually bigger than the advantage of having 11 over 2. Also, it doesn't measure the margin of the victory. For instance, Nolan Ryan lead the 1987 NL in strikeouts by 37, while Byleven lead the 85 AL in strikeouts by only 8. But, its still useful in comparing individual pitchers, and its fun to do.

Anyway, winner of first place was none other than Bert Byleven himself, which kinda forced me to re-examine my whole perception about Byleven not being worthy for the hall. According to my method, Byleven had the second best career, only Niekro was better. And, in terms of seasonal things, Byleven actually ranks first overall. He was in the middle of the pack in terms of big win seasons (in a three way tie for fifth), He was 4th in leading the league in strikeouts and strikeouts per inning pitched, (partially because he spent a portion of his career pitching in the same league as Ryan), but was second in the top 5 in both categories. Finally, he was the best in terms of the ERA, only Ryan led the league in ERA more times, and nobody was in the top 5 as much as Byleven. Thus, he ended up tied with Early Winn for the lead in the individual season analysis. Ryan would have won, but had hardly any big win seasons. Thus, having the best season by season rank, and the second best career rank, Byleven comes ahead overall. The final results are as follows,

1. Bert Byleven
2. Nolan Ryan
3. Early Winn
3. Phil Niekro
3. Robin Roberts
6. Fergie Jenkins
7. Don Sutton
7. Red Ruffing

Now, I still won't go as far as to say that Byleven belongs in the hall of fame, and I think that he's not as good a pitcher as Ryan, Winn, Niekro or Roberts. Furthermore, if I was in charge of the hall, I'm not sure that Ruffing, Sutton, or Jenkins would get in. But I will say that Byleven has had a better career as other hall of famers, who he is compareable to in terms of big seasons.